APD Research Memo
Melbourne
Improving · High confidence · Strong evidence · 30 August 2026
Conditions read as improving on 12-month price growth at 1.6% against a 1.2% historical average; median rent at $720 against a $627 historical average; median house value at $1,042,292 against a $1,012,083 historical average; price-to-rent multiple at 28 against a 31 historical average.
APD View — Melbourne
Melbourne: conditions improving
Current data indicates conditions in Melbourne are improving. 14 indicators across 5 analytical dimensions inform this reading, with 57% pointing the same way.
Direction
Improving
Confidence
High
Evidence strength
Strong
Direction describes where underlying conditions are moving. It is not a rating, a recommendation or a signal to transact — a market can be improving while remaining expensive, low-yielding or supply-exposed.
Why this confidence — Based on 14 indicators, 60 months of history, 57% of indicators pointing the same way, latest data 29 days old.
Evidence basis — Based on 14 indicators, 1 independent source, 60 months of history. Latest data 29 days old.
What changed
| Indicator | Now | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12-month price growth | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| Sales volume | 594 | 614.19 | 638.29 |
| Vendor discounting | -2.6% | -2.7% | -2.8% |
| Rental growth | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% |
| Advertised listings | 1,307 | 1,305 | 1,365 |
| Days on market | 38 days | 37 days | 36 days |
| Auction clearance | 64.1% | 63.2% | 66.7% |
| Building approvals | 326.7 | 326.69 | 315.66 |
What supports this view
- 12-month price growth — 1.6% against a historical average of 1.2%. Annual price growth is running above its historical average. Historical percentile: 83.
- Median rent — $720 against a historical average of $627. Advertised rents sit above the historical average for this market. Historical percentile: 98.
- Median house value — $1,042,292 against a historical average of $1,012,083. House values sit above the historical average for this market. Historical percentile: 98.
- Price-to-rent multiple — 27.85 against a historical average of 31.21. Prices are low relative to rents compared with the historical average. Historical percentile: 2.
- Gross yield — 3.6% against a historical average of 3.4%. Gross yields sit above the historical average for this market. Historical percentile: 87.
- Population growth — 1.4% against a historical average of 1.4%. Population growth is running above the longer-run average. Historical percentile: 53.
What works against it
- Building approvals argues the other way — Building approvals reads 327 against a 253 historical average (95th percentile), which works against the current reading.
- Days on market argues the other way — Days on market reads 38 days against a 31 days historical average (95th percentile), which works against the current reading.
- Vacancy rate argues the other way — Vacancy rate reads 1.9% against a 1.5% historical average (90th percentile), which works against the current reading.
- Advertised listings argues the other way — Advertised listings reads 1,307 against a 1,140 historical average (72th percentile), which works against the current reading.
- Building approvals — 326.7. Dwelling approvals are running above the historical average, pointing to more future supply. Historical percentile: 95.
- Days on market — 38 days. Properties are taking longer to sell than the historical norm. Historical percentile: 95.
- Vacancy rate — 1.9%. Rental availability is looser than the historical norm. Historical percentile: 90.
- Advertised listings — 1,307. Advertised stock is above the historical average. Historical percentile: 72.
This memo is research, not personal advice, and does not take your circumstances into account. It describes the direction of underlying conditions on the evidence available and states what would change that conclusion. Methodology · Markets we're watching