Demand
Weak▼ falling
Confidence: High
Selling times are 14.9% above the five-year norm. Latest reading 38.0 against a five-year average of 33.1.
- Latest
- 38
- 12 months ago
- 34.06
- 5-year average
- 33.06
- 5-year range
- 24.5 – 40.1
Ashburton
A standing intelligence briefing: what the market is doing now, how that compares with its own five-year history, and the pipeline items that could change it.
- Median house
- $1,926,000
- Median unit
- $748,000
- Annual growth
- +0.9%
- Median rent
- $1,000
- Gross yield
- 2.7%
- Vacancy
- 1.9%
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APD View — Ashburton
Ashburton: conditions improving
Current data indicates conditions in Ashburton are improving. 14 indicators across 5 analytical dimensions inform this reading, with 64% pointing the same way.
Direction
Improving
Confidence
High
Evidence strength
Strong
Direction describes where underlying conditions are moving. It is not a rating, a recommendation or a signal to transact — a market can be improving while remaining expensive, low-yielding or supply-exposed.
Why this confidence — Based on 14 indicators, 60 months of history, 64% of indicators pointing the same way, latest data 29 days old.
Evidence basis — Based on 14 indicators, 1 independent source, 60 months of history. Latest data 29 days old.
What changed
| Indicator | Now | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12-month price growth | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Rental growth | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% |
| Building approvals | 59.18 | 60.79 | 64.7 |
| Vacancy rate | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% |
| Advertised listings | 236.72 | 241.58 | 243.63 |
| Sales volume | 107.6 | 110.29 | 109.47 |
What supports this view
- 12-month price growth — 0.6% against a historical average of 0.9%. Annual price growth is running below its historical average. Historical percentile: 23.
- Median rent — $1,000 against a historical average of $869. Advertised rents sit above the historical average for this market. Historical percentile: 98.
- Median house value — $1,925,707 against a historical average of $1,884,005. House values sit above the historical average for this market. Historical percentile: 95.
- Price-to-rent multiple — 37.04 against a historical average of 41.92. Prices are low relative to rents compared with the historical average. Historical percentile: 0.
- Vendor discounting — -4.0% against a historical average of -3.7%. Sellers are accepting smaller reductions than normal. Historical percentile: 10.
- Population growth — 1.7% against a historical average of 1.6%. Population growth is running above the longer-run average. Historical percentile: 82.
What works against it
- Vacancy rate argues the other way — Vacancy rate reads 1.9% against a 1.5% historical average (93th percentile), which works against the current reading.
- Rental growth argues the other way — Rental growth reads 5.7% against a 5.9% historical average (23th percentile), which works against the current reading.
- Days on market argues the other way — Days on market reads 38 days against a 33 days historical average (73th percentile), which works against the current reading.
- Advertised listings argues the other way — Advertised listings reads 237 against a 213 historical average (63th percentile), which works against the current reading.
- Vacancy rate — 1.9%. Rental availability is looser than the historical norm. Historical percentile: 93.
- Rental growth — 5.7%. Rental growth is running below its historical average. Historical percentile: 23.
- Days on market — 38 days. Properties are taking longer to sell than the historical norm. Historical percentile: 73.
- Advertised listings — 236.72. Advertised stock is above the historical average. Historical percentile: 63.
Market signals
Each signal compares the latest reading with the suburb's own five-year record
Price Momentum
Weak▼ falling
Confidence: High
Annual price growth is 39.6% below the five-year average. Latest reading .6 against a five-year average of .9.
- Latest
- 0.55
- 12 months ago
- 1.53
- 5-year average
- 0.91
- 5-year range
- .2 – 1.6
Rental Conditions
Weak▲ rising
Confidence: High
Vacancy is running 27.5% above the historical average. Latest reading 1.9 against a five-year average of 1.5.
- Latest
- 1.9
- 12 months ago
- 1.28
- 5-year average
- 1.49
- 5-year range
- 1.0 – 1.9
Rental Pressure
Soft▼ falling
Confidence: Moderate
Rental growth is 4.7% below the five-year average. Latest reading 5.7 against a five-year average of 5.9.
- Latest
- 5.65
- 12 months ago
- 5.93
- 5-year average
- 5.93
- 5-year range
- 5.4 – 6.8
Affordability
Firm▼ falling
Confidence: High
The price-to-rent multiple sits 11.6% below its five-year average. Latest reading 37.0 against a five-year average of 41.9.
- Latest
- 37.04
- 12 months ago
- 38.92
- 5-year average
- 41.92
- 5-year range
- 37.0 – 47.2
Supply
Soft▼ falling
Confidence: High
Advertised stock is 11.0% above the five-year average. Latest reading 236.7 against a five-year average of 213.3.
- Latest
- 236.72
- 12 months ago
- 228.63
- 5-year average
- 213.28
- 5-year range
- 154.8 – 254.9
Liquidity
Strong▼ falling
Confidence: High
Transaction volumes are 15.0% above the five-year average. Latest reading 107.6 against a five-year average of 93.6.
- Latest
- 107.6
- 12 months ago
- 100.3
- 5-year average
- 93.58
- 5-year range
- 67.0 – 114.4
Population Growth
Firm— flat
Confidence: Moderate
Population growth is 8.1% above the longer-run average. Latest reading 1.7 against a five-year average of 1.6.
- Latest
- 1.74
- 12 months ago
- 1.56
- 5-year average
- 1.61
- 5-year range
- 1.4 – 1.8
Development Risk
Soft▼ falling
Confidence: High
Dwelling approvals are 10.2% above the five-year average. Latest reading 59.2 against a five-year average of 53.7.
- Latest
- 59.18
- 12 months ago
- 59.98
- 5-year average
- 53.69
- 5-year range
- 36.4 – 66.1
Investor Activity
Neutral▼ falling
Confidence: Low
Gross yields are 3.1% above the five-year average. Latest reading 2.7 against a five-year average of 2.6.
- Latest
- 2.7
- 12 months ago
- 2.67
- 5-year average
- 2.62
- 5-year range
- 2.4 – 2.8
Indicators
Latest reading against one, three and five years ago
| Indicator | Latest | 1yr | 3yr | 5yr | 5yr avg | 5yr range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median house priceMiddle sale price for houses over the trailing twelve months. | $1,925,707 | +0.5% | +2.9% | +4.5% | $1,884,005 | $1,841,054 – $1,926,033 |
| 12-month price growthTwelve-month change in median house price. | 0.6% | -64.1% | -26.7% | — | 0.9% | 0.2% – 1.6% |
| Median unit priceMiddle sale price for units and apartments over the trailing twelve months. | $749,568 | +0.6% | +1.9% | +3.5% | $736,789 | $724,432 – $749,568 |
| Median weekly rentMiddle advertised weekly rent across all dwelling types. | 1,000 | +5.7% | +19.5% | +33.3% | 869 | 750 – 1,000 |
| Rental growthTwelve-month change in median advertised weekly rent. | 5.7% | -4.7% | +4.6% | — | 5.9% | 5.4% – 6.8% |
| Gross rental yieldAnnual gross rent as a share of median dwelling value. | 2.7% | +1.1% | +4.7% | +8.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% – 2.8% |
| Price-to-rent multipleMedian house price divided by annual median rent. | 37 | -4.8% | -13.9% | -21.6% | 42 | 37 – 47 |
| Vacancy rateShare of rental stock advertised and unlet. | 1.9% | +48.4% | +2.2% | +77.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% – 1.9% |
| Sales volumeNumber of dwelling transactions settled in the month. | 108 | +7.3% | +16.3% | +40.5% | 94 | 67 – 114 |
| Total listingsDwellings advertised for sale at month end. | 237 | +3.5% | +18.1% | +27.0% | 213 | 155 – 255 |
| Days on marketMedian time from listing to sale. | 38 days | +11.6% | +15.2% | +40.3% | 33 days | 24 days – 40 days |
| Vendor discountMedian gap between first asking price and sale price. | -4.0% | -11.3% | -3.9% | -21.0% | -3.7% | -4.1% – -3.2% |
| Auction clearanceShare of scheduled auctions reported sold. | 64.1% | +5.0% | +6.6% | +11.2% | 60.7% | 54.7% – 66.1% |
| Population growthAnnual resident population change. | 1.7% | +11.5% | +5.5% | +15.2% | 1.6% | 1.4% – 1.8% |
| Building approvalsDwellings approved for construction in the month. | 59 | -1.3% | +19.0% | +22.2% | 54 | 36 – 66 |
Source: Australia Property Data derived series (anchored to current market metrics). Percentage columns show the change from that point to the latest observation.
History
Monthly observations, last five years
Source: Australia Property Data derived series (anchored to current market metrics)
Source: Australia Property Data derived series (anchored to current market metrics)
Source: Australia Property Data derived series (anchored to current market metrics)
Source: Australia Property Data derived series (anchored to current market metrics)
What could change this market?
- Transport
Suburban Rail Loop East
Under construction · 2035
Reshapes access between middle-ring employment centres and lifts development capacity around six new stations.
Tunnelling underway between Cheltenham and Box Hill; precinct structure planning continues alongside.
- Transport
Metro Tunnel precinct uplift
Operating · Now
New CBD-fringe stations are already redirecting rental demand and apartment supply.
Station catchments at Parkville, Anzac and Arden are the focus of rezoning activity.
- Planning reform
Activity centre rezoning program
Announced · 2026-2028
Higher permitted densities across dozens of centres change the medium-term apartment pipeline.
Watch approval volumes in nominated centres for early supply signals.
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