Demand
Weak▲ rising
Confidence: High
Selling times are 24.2% above the five-year norm. Latest reading 38.0 against a five-year average of 30.6.
- Latest
- 38
- 12 months ago
- 29.4
- 5-year average
- 30.6
- 5-year range
- 22.1 – 38.5
Box Hill
A standing intelligence briefing: what the market is doing now, how that compares with its own five-year history, and the pipeline items that could change it.
- Median house
- $1,742,000
- Median unit
- $604,000
- Annual growth
- +0.6%
- Median rent
- $1,042
- Gross yield
- 3.1%
- Vacancy
- 1.9%
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APD View — Box Hill
Box Hill: conditions stable
Current data indicates conditions in Box Hill are stable. 14 indicators across 5 analytical dimensions inform this reading, with 50% pointing the same way.
Direction
Stable
Confidence
Moderate
Evidence strength
Strong
Direction describes where underlying conditions are moving. It is not a rating, a recommendation or a signal to transact — a market can be improving while remaining expensive, low-yielding or supply-exposed.
Why this confidence — Based on 14 indicators, 60 months of history, 50% of indicators pointing the same way, latest data 29 days old.
Evidence basis — Based on 14 indicators, 1 independent source, 60 months of history. Latest data 29 days old.
What changed
| Indicator | Now | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12-month price growth | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.0% |
| Rental growth | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.5% |
| Building approvals | 35.42 | 36.26 | 38.08 |
| Sales volume | 64.4 | 64.74 | 68.46 |
| Vendor discounting | -2.8% | -2.8% | -3.0% |
| Days on market | 38 days | 38 days | 37 days |
What supports this view
- Rental growth — 6.6% against a historical average of 6.0%. Rental growth is running above its historical average. Historical percentile: 96.
- Median rent — $1,042 against a historical average of $904. Advertised rents sit above the historical average for this market. Historical percentile: 98.
- Price-to-rent multiple — 32.04 against a historical average of 36.78. Prices are low relative to rents compared with the historical average. Historical percentile: 0.
- Population growth — 1.3% against a historical average of 1.1%. Population growth is running above the longer-run average. Historical percentile: 90.
- Median house value — $1,736,830 against a historical average of $1,717,171. House values sit above the historical average for this market. Historical percentile: 90.
- Auction clearance — 64.1% against a historical average of 60.6%. A larger share of auctions is clearing than normal. Historical percentile: 83.
What works against it
- 12-month price growth argues the other way — 12-month price growth reads 0.2% against a 0.6% historical average (6th percentile), which works against the current reading.
- Days on market argues the other way — Days on market reads 38 days against a 31 days historical average (93th percentile), which works against the current reading.
- Vacancy rate argues the other way — Vacancy rate reads 1.9% against a 1.5% historical average (95th percentile), which works against the current reading.
- Advertised listings argues the other way — Advertised listings reads 142 against a 121 historical average (80th percentile), which works against the current reading.
- 12-month price growth — 0.2%. Annual price growth is running below its historical average. Historical percentile: 6.
- Days on market — 38 days. Properties are taking longer to sell than the historical norm. Historical percentile: 93.
- Vacancy rate — 1.9%. Rental availability is looser than the historical norm. Historical percentile: 95.
- Advertised listings — 141.68. Advertised stock is above the historical average. Historical percentile: 80.
Market signals
Each signal compares the latest reading with the suburb's own five-year record
Price Momentum
Weak▼ falling
Confidence: High
Annual price growth is 66.1% below the five-year average. Latest reading .2 against a five-year average of .6.
- Latest
- 0.2
- 12 months ago
- 0.69
- 5-year average
- 0.59
- 5-year range
- -.1 – 1.3
Rental Conditions
Weak▲ rising
Confidence: High
Vacancy is running 25.8% above the historical average. Latest reading 1.9 against a five-year average of 1.5.
- Latest
- 1.9
- 12 months ago
- 1.41
- 5-year average
- 1.51
- 5-year range
- 1.1 – 1.9
Rental Pressure
Firm▲ rising
Confidence: Moderate
Rental growth is 9.3% above the five-year average. Latest reading 6.6 against a five-year average of 6.0.
- Latest
- 6.59
- 12 months ago
- 5.79
- 5-year average
- 6.03
- 5-year range
- 5.3 – 6.7
Affordability
Strong▼ falling
Confidence: High
The price-to-rent multiple sits 12.9% below its five-year average. Latest reading 32.0 against a five-year average of 36.8.
- Latest
- 32.04
- 12 months ago
- 34.08
- 5-year average
- 36.78
- 5-year range
- 32.0 – 41.7
Supply
Weak— flat
Confidence: High
Advertised stock is 17.6% above the five-year average. Latest reading 141.7 against a five-year average of 120.5.
- Latest
- 141.68
- 12 months ago
- 122.02
- 5-year average
- 120.52
- 5-year range
- 86.8 – 146.4
Liquidity
Neutral▼ falling
Confidence: Low
Transaction volumes are in line with the five-year average. Latest reading 64.4 against a five-year average of 63.3.
- Latest
- 64.4
- 12 months ago
- 69.95
- 5-year average
- 63.32
- 5-year range
- 47.5 – 73.8
Population Growth
Firm▲ rising
Confidence: Moderate
Population growth is 8.7% above the longer-run average. Latest reading 1.3 against a five-year average of 1.2.
- Latest
- 1.25
- 12 months ago
- 1.09
- 5-year average
- 1.15
- 5-year range
- 1.0 – 1.3
Development Risk
Soft▼ falling
Confidence: Moderate
Dwelling approvals are 6.3% above the five-year average. Latest reading 35.4 against a five-year average of 33.3.
- Latest
- 35.42
- 12 months ago
- 38.13
- 5-year average
- 33.31
- 5-year range
- 22.6 – 40.8
Investor Activity
Firm▼ falling
Confidence: Moderate
Gross yields are 4.0% above the five-year average. Latest reading 3.1 against a five-year average of 3.0.
- Latest
- 3.1
- 12 months ago
- 2.99
- 5-year average
- 2.98
- 5-year range
- 2.7 – 3.2
Indicators
Latest reading against one, three and five years ago
| Indicator | Latest | 1yr | 3yr | 5yr | 5yr avg | 5yr range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median house priceMiddle sale price for houses over the trailing twelve months. | $1,736,830 | +0.2% | +1.1% | +2.5% | $1,717,171 | $1,690,370 – $1,744,823 |
| 12-month price growthTwelve-month change in median house price. | 0.2% | -71.0% | -79.6% | — | 0.6% | -0.1% – 1.3% |
| Median unit priceMiddle sale price for units and apartments over the trailing twelve months. | $602,343 | -0.2% | +0.8% | +1.5% | $597,866 | $590,607 – $604,335 |
| Median weekly rentMiddle advertised weekly rent across all dwelling types. | 1,042 | +6.6% | +19.3% | +33.3% | 904 | 782 – 1,042 |
| Rental growthTwelve-month change in median advertised weekly rent. | 6.6% | +13.8% | +10.4% | — | 6.0% | 5.3% – 6.7% |
| Gross rental yieldAnnual gross rent as a share of median dwelling value. | 3.1% | +3.7% | +4.4% | +10.3% | 3.0% | 2.7% – 3.2% |
| Price-to-rent multipleMedian house price divided by annual median rent. | 32 | -6.0% | -15.3% | -23.1% | 37 | 32 – 42 |
| Vacancy rateShare of rental stock advertised and unlet. | 1.9% | +34.8% | +9.2% | +71.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% – 1.9% |
| Sales volumeNumber of dwelling transactions settled in the month. | 64 | -7.9% | +16.0% | +4.4% | 63 | 47 – 74 |
| Total listingsDwellings advertised for sale at month end. | 142 | +16.1% | +12.5% | +47.3% | 121 | 87 – 146 |
| Days on marketMedian time from listing to sale. | 38 days | +29.3% | +5.9% | +65.6% | 31 days | 22 days – 38 days |
| Vendor discountMedian gap between first asking price and sale price. | -2.8% | +9.0% | -6.0% | +1.4% | -2.9% | -3.1% – -2.5% |
| Auction clearanceShare of scheduled auctions reported sold. | 64.1% | +6.2% | +5.8% | +15.3% | 60.6% | 54.6% – 66.0% |
| Population growthAnnual resident population change. | 1.3% | +14.7% | +4.2% | +16.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% – 1.3% |
| Building approvalsDwellings approved for construction in the month. | 35 | -7.1% | +19.5% | +18.7% | 33 | 23 – 41 |
Source: Australia Property Data derived series (anchored to current market metrics). Percentage columns show the change from that point to the latest observation.
History
Monthly observations, last five years
Source: Australia Property Data derived series (anchored to current market metrics)
Source: Australia Property Data derived series (anchored to current market metrics)
Source: Australia Property Data derived series (anchored to current market metrics)
Source: Australia Property Data derived series (anchored to current market metrics)
What could change this market?
- Transport
Suburban Rail Loop East
Under construction · 2035
Reshapes access between middle-ring employment centres and lifts development capacity around six new stations.
Tunnelling underway between Cheltenham and Box Hill; precinct structure planning continues alongside.
- Transport
Box Hill Suburban Rail Loop station
Under construction · 2035 · 0.4 km
A terminus station concentrates long-run development capacity in the centre.
Site assembly around the station is already active.
- Transport
Metro Tunnel precinct uplift
Operating · Now
New CBD-fringe stations are already redirecting rental demand and apartment supply.
Station catchments at Parkville, Anzac and Arden are the focus of rezoning activity.
- Planning reform
Activity centre rezoning program
Announced · 2026-2028
Higher permitted densities across dozens of centres change the medium-term apartment pipeline.
Watch approval volumes in nominated centres for early supply signals.
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