Demand
Neutral▼ falling
Confidence: Low
Selling times are 2.1% above the five-year norm. Latest reading 38.0 against a five-year average of 37.2.
- Latest
- 38
- 12 months ago
- 41.97
- 5-year average
- 37.22
- 5-year range
- 27.3 – 43.8
Point Cook
A standing intelligence briefing: what the market is doing now, how that compares with its own five-year history, and the pipeline items that could change it.
- Median house
- $812,000
- Median unit
- $468,000
- Annual growth
- +3.1%
- Median rent
- $654
- Gross yield
- 4.2%
- Vacancy
- 1.9%
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APD View — Point Cook
Point Cook: conditions stable
Current data indicates conditions in Point Cook are stable. 14 indicators across 5 analytical dimensions inform this reading, with 71% pointing the same way.
Direction
Stable
Confidence
High
Evidence strength
Strong
Direction describes where underlying conditions are moving. It is not a rating, a recommendation or a signal to transact — a market can be improving while remaining expensive, low-yielding or supply-exposed.
Why this confidence — Based on 14 indicators, 60 months of history, 71% of indicators pointing the same way, latest data 29 days old.
Evidence basis — Based on 14 indicators, 1 independent source, 60 months of history. Latest data 29 days old.
What changed
| Indicator | Now | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12-month price growth | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% |
| Days on market | 38 days | 39 days | 41 days |
| Advertised listings | 229.68 | 238.68 | 247.85 |
| Building approvals | 57.42 | 58.66 | 60.66 |
| Vacancy rate | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% |
| Rental growth | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% |
What supports this view
- Median rent — $654 against a historical average of $571. Advertised rents sit above the historical average for this market. Historical percentile: 97.
- Median house value — $809,278 against a historical average of $753,774. House values sit above the historical average for this market. Historical percentile: 97.
- Sales volume — 104.4 against a historical average of 83.81. Transaction volumes are running above the historical average. Historical percentile: 93.
- Price-to-rent multiple — 23.8 against a historical average of 25.47. Prices are low relative to rents compared with the historical average. Historical percentile: 2.
- Vendor discounting — -4.0% against a historical average of -3.6%. Sellers are accepting smaller reductions than normal. Historical percentile: 5.
- Gross yield — 4.2% against a historical average of 3.9%. Gross yields sit above the historical average for this market. Historical percentile: 87.
What works against it
- 12-month price growth argues the other way — 12-month price growth reads 2.6% against a 3.1% historical average (8th percentile), which works against the current reading.
- Vacancy rate argues the other way — Vacancy rate reads 1.9% against a 1.5% historical average (95th percentile), which works against the current reading.
- Rental growth argues the other way — Rental growth reads 5.7% against a 6.0% historical average (21th percentile), which works against the current reading.
- Building approvals argues the other way — Building approvals reads 57 against a 50 historical average (63th percentile), which works against the current reading.
- 12-month price growth — 2.6%. Annual price growth is running below its historical average. Historical percentile: 8.
- Vacancy rate — 1.9%. Rental availability is looser than the historical norm. Historical percentile: 95.
- Rental growth — 5.7%. Rental growth is running below its historical average. Historical percentile: 21.
- Building approvals — 57.42. Dwelling approvals are running above the historical average, pointing to more future supply. Historical percentile: 63.
Market signals
Each signal compares the latest reading with the suburb's own five-year record
Price Momentum
Weak— flat
Confidence: High
Annual price growth is 15.6% below the five-year average. Latest reading 2.6 against a five-year average of 3.1.
- Latest
- 2.6
- 12 months ago
- 3.28
- 5-year average
- 3.08
- 5-year range
- 2.3 – 3.9
Rental Conditions
Weak▲ rising
Confidence: High
Vacancy is running 25.8% above the historical average. Latest reading 1.9 against a five-year average of 1.5.
- Latest
- 1.9
- 12 months ago
- 1.42
- 5-year average
- 1.51
- 5-year range
- 1.1 – 1.9
Rental Pressure
Soft▼ falling
Confidence: Moderate
Rental growth is 4.7% below the five-year average. Latest reading 5.7 against a five-year average of 6.0.
- Latest
- 5.69
- 12 months ago
- 5.81
- 5-year average
- 5.97
- 5-year range
- 5.3 – 6.6
Affordability
Firm— flat
Confidence: Moderate
The price-to-rent multiple sits 6.6% below its five-year average. Latest reading 23.8 against a five-year average of 25.5.
- Latest
- 23.8
- 12 months ago
- 24.51
- 5-year average
- 25.47
- 5-year range
- 23.7 – 27.3
Supply
Firm▼ falling
Confidence: Moderate
Advertised stock is 4.2% below the five-year average. Latest reading 229.7 against a five-year average of 239.9.
- Latest
- 229.68
- 12 months ago
- 271.73
- 5-year average
- 239.87
- 5-year range
- 183.9 – 279.9
Liquidity
Strong▲ rising
Confidence: High
Transaction volumes are 24.6% above the five-year average. Latest reading 104.4 against a five-year average of 83.8.
- Latest
- 104.4
- 12 months ago
- 77.11
- 5-year average
- 83.81
- 5-year range
- 60.7 – 105.6
Population Growth
Firm▲ rising
Confidence: Moderate
Population growth is 8.3% above the longer-run average. Latest reading 1.7 against a five-year average of 1.6.
- Latest
- 1.7
- 12 months ago
- 1.56
- 5-year average
- 1.57
- 5-year range
- 1.4 – 1.7
Development Risk
Weak▼ falling
Confidence: High
Dwelling approvals are 14.2% above the five-year average. Latest reading 57.4 against a five-year average of 50.3.
- Latest
- 57.42
- 12 months ago
- 54.35
- 5-year average
- 50.3
- 5-year range
- 33.6 – 62.8
Investor Activity
Firm— flat
Confidence: Moderate
Gross yields are 6.9% above the five-year average. Latest reading 4.2 against a five-year average of 3.9.
- Latest
- 4.2
- 12 months ago
- 3.84
- 5-year average
- 3.93
- 5-year range
- 3.5 – 4.3
Indicators
Latest reading against one, three and five years ago
| Indicator | Latest | 1yr | 3yr | 5yr | 5yr avg | 5yr range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median house priceMiddle sale price for houses over the trailing twelve months. | $809,278 | +2.6% | +9.5% | +15.4% | $753,774 | $701,183 – $809,915 |
| 12-month price growthTwelve-month change in median house price. | 2.6% | -20.7% | +6.6% | — | 3.1% | 2.3% – 3.9% |
| Median unit priceMiddle sale price for units and apartments over the trailing twelve months. | $467,453 | +1.7% | +6.9% | +10.9% | $444,330 | $421,182 – $468,505 |
| Median weekly rentMiddle advertised weekly rent across all dwelling types. | 654 | +5.7% | +18.4% | +32.4% | 571 | 494 – 655 |
| Rental growthTwelve-month change in median advertised weekly rent. | 5.7% | -2.1% | -8.4% | — | 6.0% | 5.3% – 6.6% |
| Gross rental yieldAnnual gross rent as a share of median dwelling value. | 4.2% | +9.4% | +3.7% | +18.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% – 4.3% |
| Price-to-rent multipleMedian house price divided by annual median rent. | 24 | -2.9% | -7.5% | -12.8% | 25 | 24 – 27 |
| Vacancy rateShare of rental stock advertised and unlet. | 1.9% | +33.8% | +5.6% | +77.6% | 1.5% | 1.1% – 1.9% |
| Sales volumeNumber of dwelling transactions settled in the month. | 104 | +35.4% | +5.3% | +71.0% | 84 | 61 – 106 |
| Total listingsDwellings advertised for sale at month end. | 230 | -15.5% | +15.0% | -8.5% | 240 | 184 – 280 |
| Days on marketMedian time from listing to sale. | 38 days | -9.5% | +17.4% | +5.7% | 37 days | 27 days – 44 days |
| Vendor discountMedian gap between first asking price and sale price. | -4.0% | -13.1% | -2.6% | -21.8% | -3.6% | -4.0% – -3.1% |
| Auction clearanceShare of scheduled auctions reported sold. | 64.1% | +5.6% | +2.6% | +11.4% | 60.3% | 54.0% – 65.9% |
| Population growthAnnual resident population change. | 1.7% | +9.0% | 0.0% | +18.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% – 1.7% |
| Building approvalsDwellings approved for construction in the month. | 57 | +5.6% | +17.1% | +35.7% | 50 | 34 – 63 |
Source: Australia Property Data derived series (anchored to current market metrics). Percentage columns show the change from that point to the latest observation.
History
Monthly observations, last five years
Source: Australia Property Data derived series (anchored to current market metrics)
Source: Australia Property Data derived series (anchored to current market metrics)
Source: Australia Property Data derived series (anchored to current market metrics)
Source: Australia Property Data derived series (anchored to current market metrics)
What could change this market?
- Transport
Suburban Rail Loop East
Under construction · 2035
Reshapes access between middle-ring employment centres and lifts development capacity around six new stations.
Tunnelling underway between Cheltenham and Box Hill; precinct structure planning continues alongside.
- Transport
Point Cook road and bus upgrades
Approved · 2027 · 2.4 km
Access improvements support continued outer-west household formation.
Land release volumes remain the main supply risk.
- Transport
Metro Tunnel precinct uplift
Operating · Now
New CBD-fringe stations are already redirecting rental demand and apartment supply.
Station catchments at Parkville, Anzac and Arden are the focus of rezoning activity.
- Planning reform
Activity centre rezoning program
Announced · 2026-2028
Higher permitted densities across dozens of centres change the medium-term apartment pipeline.
Watch approval volumes in nominated centres for early supply signals.
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