Demand
Neutral▼ falling
Confidence: Low
Selling times are in line with the five-year norm. Latest reading 38.0 against a five-year average of 38.4.
- Latest
- 38
- 12 months ago
- 44.62
- 5-year average
- 38.38
- 5-year range
- 28.6 – 45.1
Reservoir
A standing intelligence briefing: what the market is doing now, how that compares with its own five-year history, and the pipeline items that could change it.
- Median house
- $986,000
- Median unit
- $496,000
- Annual growth
- +2.6%
- Median rent
- $723
- Gross yield
- 3.8%
- Vacancy
- 1.9%
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APD View — Reservoir
Reservoir: conditions stable
Current data indicates conditions in Reservoir are stable. 14 indicators across 5 analytical dimensions inform this reading, with 71% pointing the same way.
Direction
Stable
Confidence
High
Evidence strength
Strong
Direction describes where underlying conditions are moving. It is not a rating, a recommendation or a signal to transact — a market can be improving while remaining expensive, low-yielding or supply-exposed.
Why this confidence — Based on 14 indicators, 60 months of history, 71% of indicators pointing the same way, latest data 29 days old.
Evidence basis — Based on 14 indicators, 1 independent source, 60 months of history. Latest data 29 days old.
What changed
| Indicator | Now | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12-month price growth | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.1% |
| Days on market | 38 days | 40 days | 42 days |
| Vacancy rate | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.1% |
| Rental growth | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% |
| Building approvals | 47.74 | 48.83 | 50.95 |
| Vendor discounting | -3.5% | -3.5% | -3.6% |
What supports this view
- Median rent — $723 against a historical average of $627. Advertised rents sit above the historical average for this market. Historical percentile: 98.
- Price-to-rent multiple — 26.22 against a historical average of 28.52. Prices are low relative to rents compared with the historical average. Historical percentile: 0.
- Median house value — $985,740 against a historical average of $926,246. House values sit above the historical average for this market. Historical percentile: 97.
- Sales volume — 86.8 against a historical average of 70.94. Transaction volumes are running above the historical average. Historical percentile: 88.
- Population growth — 1.5% against a historical average of 1.4%. Population growth is running above the longer-run average. Historical percentile: 83.
- Rental growth — 6.3% against a historical average of 6.0%. Rental growth is running above its historical average. Historical percentile: 77.
What works against it
- 12-month price growth argues the other way — 12-month price growth reads 2.3% against a 2.6% historical average (33th percentile), which works against the current reading.
- Advertised listings argues the other way — Advertised listings reads 191 against a 156 historical average (87th percentile), which works against the current reading.
- Building approvals argues the other way — Building approvals reads 48 against a 42 historical average (67th percentile), which works against the current reading.
- Auction clearance argues the other way — Auction clearance reads 64.1% against a 64.5% historical average (43th percentile), which works against the current reading.
- 12-month price growth — 2.3%. Annual price growth is running below its historical average. Historical percentile: 33.
- Advertised listings — 190.96. Advertised stock is above the historical average. Historical percentile: 87.
- Building approvals — 47.74. Dwelling approvals are running above the historical average, pointing to more future supply. Historical percentile: 67.
- Auction clearance — 64.1%. A smaller share of auctions is clearing than normal. Historical percentile: 43.
Market signals
Each signal compares the latest reading with the suburb's own five-year record
Price Momentum
Soft▲ rising
Confidence: High
Annual price growth is 11.5% below the five-year average. Latest reading 2.3 against a five-year average of 2.6.
- Latest
- 2.3
- 12 months ago
- 3.2
- 5-year average
- 2.6
- 5-year range
- 1.9 – 3.4
Rental Conditions
Neutral▼ falling
Confidence: Low
Vacancy is running in line with the historical average. Latest reading 1.9 against a five-year average of 1.9.
- Latest
- 1.9
- 12 months ago
- 2.19
- 5-year average
- 1.92
- 5-year range
- 1.4 – 2.3
Rental Pressure
Firm— flat
Confidence: Moderate
Rental growth is 4.3% above the five-year average. Latest reading 6.3 against a five-year average of 6.0.
- Latest
- 6.28
- 12 months ago
- 6.32
- 5-year average
- 6.02
- 5-year range
- 5.4 – 6.6
Affordability
Firm— flat
Confidence: Moderate
The price-to-rent multiple sits 8.1% below its five-year average. Latest reading 26.2 against a five-year average of 28.5.
- Latest
- 26.22
- 12 months ago
- 27.24
- 5-year average
- 28.52
- 5-year range
- 26.2 – 30.9
Supply
Weak▲ rising
Confidence: High
Advertised stock is 22.4% above the five-year average. Latest reading 191.0 against a five-year average of 156.0.
- Latest
- 190.96
- 12 months ago
- 147.86
- 5-year average
- 155.95
- 5-year range
- 111.6 – 195.4
Liquidity
Strong▲ rising
Confidence: High
Transaction volumes are 22.4% above the five-year average. Latest reading 86.8 against a five-year average of 70.9.
- Latest
- 86.8
- 12 months ago
- 67.47
- 5-year average
- 70.94
- 5-year range
- 50.9 – 88.3
Population Growth
Firm— flat
Confidence: Moderate
Population growth is 7.9% above the longer-run average. Latest reading 1.5 against a five-year average of 1.4.
- Latest
- 1.5
- 12 months ago
- 1.4
- 5-year average
- 1.39
- 5-year range
- 1.2 – 1.5
Development Risk
Weak▼ falling
Confidence: High
Dwelling approvals are 14.5% above the five-year average. Latest reading 47.7 against a five-year average of 41.7.
- Latest
- 47.74
- 12 months ago
- 46.53
- 5-year average
- 41.69
- 5-year range
- 27.6 – 52.0
Investor Activity
Neutral▼ falling
Confidence: Low
Gross yields are in line with the five-year average. Latest reading 3.8 against a five-year average of 3.8.
- Latest
- 3.8
- 12 months ago
- 3.96
- 5-year average
- 3.77
- 5-year range
- 3.4 – 4.1
Indicators
Latest reading against one, three and five years ago
| Indicator | Latest | 1yr | 3yr | 5yr | 5yr avg | 5yr range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median house priceMiddle sale price for houses over the trailing twelve months. | $985,740 | +2.3% | +7.9% | +13.1% | $926,246 | $869,935 – $987,120 |
| 12-month price growthTwelve-month change in median house price. | 2.3% | -28.1% | -21.8% | — | 2.6% | 1.9% – 3.4% |
| Median unit priceMiddle sale price for units and apartments over the trailing twelve months. | $496,873 | +1.6% | +5.6% | +9.3% | $475,001 | $454,396 – $496,873 |
| Median weekly rentMiddle advertised weekly rent across all dwelling types. | 723 | +6.3% | +19.9% | +33.2% | 627 | 543 – 723 |
| Rental growthTwelve-month change in median advertised weekly rent. | 6.3% | -0.6% | +10.4% | — | 6.0% | 5.4% – 6.6% |
| Gross rental yieldAnnual gross rent as a share of median dwelling value. | 3.8% | -4.0% | +3.0% | +3.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% – 4.0% |
| Price-to-rent multipleMedian house price divided by annual median rent. | 26 | -3.7% | -10.0% | -15.1% | 29 | 26 – 31 |
| Vacancy rateShare of rental stock advertised and unlet. | 1.9% | -13.2% | +17.3% | -2.6% | 1.9% | 1.4% – 2.3% |
| Sales volumeNumber of dwelling transactions settled in the month. | 87 | +28.6% | +8.1% | +52.4% | 71 | 51 – 88 |
| Total listingsDwellings advertised for sale at month end. | 191 | +29.1% | +7.1% | +59.4% | 156 | 112 – 195 |
| Days on marketMedian time from listing to sale. | 38 days | -14.8% | +19.2% | +0.7% | 38 days | 29 days – 45 days |
| Vendor discountMedian gap between first asking price and sale price. | -3.5% | -0.9% | -9.1% | -9.1% | -3.3% | -3.7% – -2.9% |
| Auction clearanceShare of scheduled auctions reported sold. | 64.1% | -4.0% | +3.7% | +0.2% | 64.5% | 58.4% – 69.5% |
| Population growthAnnual resident population change. | 1.5% | +7.1% | +3.4% | +21.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% – 1.5% |
| Building approvalsDwellings approved for construction in the month. | 48 | +2.6% | +21.7% | +35.2% | 42 | 28 – 52 |
Source: Australia Property Data derived series (anchored to current market metrics). Percentage columns show the change from that point to the latest observation.
History
Monthly observations, last five years
Source: Australia Property Data derived series (anchored to current market metrics)
Source: Australia Property Data derived series (anchored to current market metrics)
Source: Australia Property Data derived series (anchored to current market metrics)
Source: Australia Property Data derived series (anchored to current market metrics)
What could change this market?
- Transport
Suburban Rail Loop East
Under construction · 2035
Reshapes access between middle-ring employment centres and lifts development capacity around six new stations.
Tunnelling underway between Cheltenham and Box Hill; precinct structure planning continues alongside.
- Transport
Metro Tunnel precinct uplift
Operating · Now
New CBD-fringe stations are already redirecting rental demand and apartment supply.
Station catchments at Parkville, Anzac and Arden are the focus of rezoning activity.
- Planning reform
Activity centre rezoning program
Announced · 2026-2028
Higher permitted densities across dozens of centres change the medium-term apartment pipeline.
Watch approval volumes in nominated centres for early supply signals.
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