Demand
Weak▼ falling
Confidence: High
Selling times are 17.2% above the five-year norm. Latest reading 38.0 against a five-year average of 32.4.
- Latest
- 38
- 12 months ago
- 33.4
- 5-year average
- 32.43
- 5-year range
- 23.6 – 39.7
Craigieburn
A standing intelligence briefing: what the market is doing now, how that compares with its own five-year history, and the pipeline items that could change it.
- Median house
- $668,000
- Median unit
- $418,000
- Annual growth
- +3.9%
- Median rent
- $566
- Gross yield
- 4.4%
- Vacancy
- 1.9%
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APD View — Craigieburn
Craigieburn: conditions stable
Current data indicates conditions in Craigieburn are stable. 14 indicators across 5 analytical dimensions inform this reading, with 50% pointing the same way.
Direction
Stable
Confidence
Moderate
Evidence strength
Strong
Direction describes where underlying conditions are moving. It is not a rating, a recommendation or a signal to transact — a market can be improving while remaining expensive, low-yielding or supply-exposed.
Why this confidence — Based on 14 indicators, 60 months of history, 50% of indicators pointing the same way, latest data 29 days old.
Evidence basis — Based on 14 indicators, 1 independent source, 60 months of history. Latest data 29 days old.
What changed
| Indicator | Now | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rental growth | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.4% |
| Sales volume | 50 | 51.57 | 54.06 |
| Building approvals | 27.5 | 27.75 | 29 |
| Population growth | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| Days on market | 38 days | 38 days | 39 days |
| Auction clearance | 64.1% | 64.7% | 66.4% |
What supports this view
- Median rent — $566 against a historical average of $491. Advertised rents sit above the historical average for this market. Historical percentile: 98.
- Median house value — $667,466 against a historical average of $609,263. House values sit above the historical average for this market. Historical percentile: 98.
- Price-to-rent multiple — 22.7 against a historical average of 23.9. Prices are low relative to rents compared with the historical average. Historical percentile: 0.
- Population growth — 1.1% against a historical average of 1.0%. Population growth is running above the longer-run average. Historical percentile: 62.
- Auction clearance — 64.1% against a historical average of 62.5%. A larger share of auctions is clearing than normal. Historical percentile: 53.
- Sales volume — 50 against a historical average of 46.13. Transaction volumes are running above the historical average. Historical percentile: 58.
What works against it
- Advertised listings argues the other way — Advertised listings reads 110 against a 90 historical average (92th percentile), which works against the current reading.
- Vacancy rate argues the other way — Vacancy rate reads 1.9% against a 1.6% historical average (83th percentile), which works against the current reading.
- Rental growth argues the other way — Rental growth reads 5.8% against a 6.0% historical average (25th percentile), which works against the current reading.
- Days on market argues the other way — Days on market reads 38 days against a 32 days historical average (78th percentile), which works against the current reading.
- Advertised listings — 110. Advertised stock is above the historical average. Historical percentile: 92.
- Vacancy rate — 1.9%. Rental availability is looser than the historical norm. Historical percentile: 83.
- Rental growth — 5.8%. Rental growth is running below its historical average. Historical percentile: 25.
- Days on market — 38 days. Properties are taking longer to sell than the historical norm. Historical percentile: 78.
Market signals
Each signal compares the latest reading with the suburb's own five-year record
Price Momentum
Neutral▼ falling
Confidence: Low
Annual price growth is in line with the five-year average. Latest reading 3.9 against a five-year average of 3.9.
- Latest
- 3.94
- 12 months ago
- 4.01
- 5-year average
- 3.92
- 5-year range
- 3.3 – 4.5
Rental Conditions
Weak▲ rising
Confidence: High
Vacancy is running 22.6% above the historical average. Latest reading 1.9 against a five-year average of 1.6.
- Latest
- 1.9
- 12 months ago
- 1.56
- 5-year average
- 1.55
- 5-year range
- 1.1 – 2.0
Rental Pressure
Soft▼ falling
Confidence: Moderate
Rental growth is 4.0% below the five-year average. Latest reading 5.8 against a five-year average of 6.0.
- Latest
- 5.78
- 12 months ago
- 6.04
- 5-year average
- 6.02
- 5-year range
- 5.4 – 6.8
Affordability
Firm— flat
Confidence: Moderate
The price-to-rent multiple sits 5.0% below its five-year average. Latest reading 22.7 against a five-year average of 23.9.
- Latest
- 22.7
- 12 months ago
- 23.1
- 5-year average
- 23.9
- 5-year range
- 22.7 – 25.2
Supply
Weak▲ rising
Confidence: High
Advertised stock is 22.4% above the five-year average. Latest reading 110.0 against a five-year average of 89.9.
- Latest
- 110
- 12 months ago
- 84.51
- 5-year average
- 89.89
- 5-year range
- 64.8 – 112.8
Liquidity
Firm▼ falling
Confidence: Moderate
Transaction volumes are 8.4% above the five-year average. Latest reading 50.0 against a five-year average of 46.1.
- Latest
- 50
- 12 months ago
- 50.94
- 5-year average
- 46.13
- 5-year range
- 33.0 – 55.1
Population Growth
Neutral— flat
Confidence: Low
Population growth is 3.8% above the longer-run average. Latest reading 1.1 against a five-year average of 1.0.
- Latest
- 1.08
- 12 months ago
- 1.05
- 5-year average
- 1.04
- 5-year range
- .9 – 1.1
Development Risk
Weak▼ falling
Confidence: High
Dwelling approvals are 18.1% above the five-year average. Latest reading 27.5 against a five-year average of 23.3.
- Latest
- 27.5
- 12 months ago
- 24.6
- 5-year average
- 23.28
- 5-year range
- 15.0 – 29.3
Investor Activity
Neutral▼ falling
Confidence: Low
Gross yields are in line with the five-year average. Latest reading 4.4 against a five-year average of 4.4.
- Latest
- 4.4
- 12 months ago
- 4.52
- 5-year average
- 4.37
- 5-year range
- 3.9 – 4.7
Indicators
Latest reading against one, three and five years ago
| Indicator | Latest | 1yr | 3yr | 5yr | 5yr avg | 5yr range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median house priceMiddle sale price for houses over the trailing twelve months. | $667,466 | +3.9% | +12.0% | +20.3% | $609,263 | $554,811 – $667,466 |
| 12-month price growthTwelve-month change in median house price. | 3.9% | -1.7% | 0.0% | — | 3.9% | 3.3% – 4.5% |
| Median unit priceMiddle sale price for units and apartments over the trailing twelve months. | $416,753 | +2.0% | +7.8% | +14.0% | $391,839 | $365,724 – $418,304 |
| Median weekly rentMiddle advertised weekly rent across all dwelling types. | 566 | +5.8% | +19.2% | +33.3% | 491 | 424 – 566 |
| Rental growthTwelve-month change in median advertised weekly rent. | 5.8% | -4.3% | +0.2% | — | 6.0% | 5.3% – 6.8% |
| Gross rental yieldAnnual gross rent as a share of median dwelling value. | 4.4% | -2.7% | +5.0% | 0.0% | 4.4% | 3.9% – 4.7% |
| Price-to-rent multipleMedian house price divided by annual median rent. | 23 | -1.7% | -6.0% | -9.7% | 24 | 23 – 25 |
| Vacancy rateShare of rental stock advertised and unlet. | 1.9% | +21.8% | +9.2% | +62.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% – 2.0% |
| Sales volumeNumber of dwelling transactions settled in the month. | 50 | -1.8% | +15.2% | +20.6% | 46 | 33 – 55 |
| Total listingsDwellings advertised for sale at month end. | 110 | +30.2% | +7.7% | +59.7% | 90 | 65 – 113 |
| Days on marketMedian time from listing to sale. | 38 days | +13.8% | +13.9% | +48.4% | 32 days | 24 days – 40 days |
| Vendor discountMedian gap between first asking price and sale price. | -2.4% | +9.3% | -6.6% | +2.8% | -2.5% | -2.7% – -2.1% |
| Auction clearanceShare of scheduled auctions reported sold. | 64.1% | -1.7% | +6.1% | +4.3% | 62.5% | 56.0% – 67.1% |
| Population growthAnnual resident population change. | 1.1% | +2.9% | +8.0% | +12.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% – 1.1% |
| Building approvalsDwellings approved for construction in the month. | 28 | +11.8% | +18.7% | +46.8% | 23 | 15 – 29 |
Source: Australia Property Data derived series (anchored to current market metrics). Percentage columns show the change from that point to the latest observation.
History
Monthly observations, last five years
Source: Australia Property Data derived series (anchored to current market metrics)
Source: Australia Property Data derived series (anchored to current market metrics)
Source: Australia Property Data derived series (anchored to current market metrics)
Source: Australia Property Data derived series (anchored to current market metrics)
What could change this market?
- Transport
Suburban Rail Loop East
Under construction · 2035
Reshapes access between middle-ring employment centres and lifts development capacity around six new stations.
Tunnelling underway between Cheltenham and Box Hill; precinct structure planning continues alongside.
- Transport
Metro Tunnel precinct uplift
Operating · Now
New CBD-fringe stations are already redirecting rental demand and apartment supply.
Station catchments at Parkville, Anzac and Arden are the focus of rezoning activity.
- Planning reform
Activity centre rezoning program
Announced · 2026-2028
Higher permitted densities across dozens of centres change the medium-term apartment pipeline.
Watch approval volumes in nominated centres for early supply signals.
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