Demand
Soft▼ falling
Confidence: Moderate
Selling times are 8.4% above the five-year norm. Latest reading 38.0 against a five-year average of 35.1.
- Latest
- 38
- 12 months ago
- 39.33
- 5-year average
- 35.06
- 5-year range
- 25.3 – 42.0
Sunshine
A standing intelligence briefing: what the market is doing now, how that compares with its own five-year history, and the pipeline items that could change it.
- Median house
- $848,000
- Median unit
- $436,000
- Annual growth
- +5.1%
- Median rent
- $698
- Gross yield
- 4.3%
- Vacancy
- 1.9%
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APD View — Sunshine
Sunshine: conditions stable
Current data indicates conditions in Sunshine are stable. 14 indicators across 5 analytical dimensions inform this reading, with 57% pointing the same way.
Direction
Stable
Confidence
High
Evidence strength
Strong
Direction describes where underlying conditions are moving. It is not a rating, a recommendation or a signal to transact — a market can be improving while remaining expensive, low-yielding or supply-exposed.
Why this confidence — Based on 14 indicators, 60 months of history, 57% of indicators pointing the same way, latest data 29 days old.
Evidence basis — Based on 14 indicators, 1 independent source, 60 months of history. Latest data 29 days old.
What changed
| Indicator | Now | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rental growth | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% |
| Vacancy rate | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| Days on market | 38 days | 39 days | 41 days |
| Advertised listings | 110 | 111.95 | 116.16 |
| Building approvals | 27.5 | 27.81 | 28.61 |
| Vendor discounting | -2.4% | -2.4% | -2.5% |
What supports this view
- Median rent — $698 against a historical average of $609. Advertised rents sit above the historical average for this market. Historical percentile: 98.
- Median house value — $846,453 against a historical average of $752,345. House values sit above the historical average for this market. Historical percentile: 97.
- Sales volume — 50 against a historical average of 40.44. Transaction volumes are running above the historical average. Historical percentile: 97.
- Price-to-rent multiple — 23.31 against a historical average of 23.78. Prices are low relative to rents compared with the historical average. Historical percentile: 2.
- Population growth — 1.1% against a historical average of 1.0%. Population growth is running above the longer-run average. Historical percentile: 85.
- Auction clearance — 64.1% against a historical average of 61.3%. A larger share of auctions is clearing than normal. Historical percentile: 82.
What works against it
- Rental growth argues the other way — Rental growth reads 5.4% against a 6.0% historical average (0th percentile), which works against the current reading.
- 12-month price growth argues the other way — 12-month price growth reads 4.6% against a 5.1% historical average (15th percentile), which works against the current reading.
- Building approvals argues the other way — Building approvals reads 28 against a 23 historical average (70th percentile), which works against the current reading.
- Advertised listings argues the other way — Advertised listings reads 110 against a 99 historical average (65th percentile), which works against the current reading.
- Rental growth — 5.4%. Rental growth is running below its historical average. Historical percentile: 0.
- 12-month price growth — 4.6%. Annual price growth is running below its historical average. Historical percentile: 15.
- Building approvals — 27.5. Dwelling approvals are running above the historical average, pointing to more future supply. Historical percentile: 70.
- Advertised listings — 110. Advertised stock is above the historical average. Historical percentile: 65.
Market signals
Each signal compares the latest reading with the suburb's own five-year record
Price Momentum
Soft▼ falling
Confidence: Moderate
Annual price growth is 9.1% below the five-year average. Latest reading 4.6 against a five-year average of 5.1.
- Latest
- 4.62
- 12 months ago
- 5.22
- 5-year average
- 5.08
- 5-year range
- 4.3 – 5.9
Rental Conditions
Neutral▼ falling
Confidence: Low
Vacancy is running 2.2% above the historical average. Latest reading 1.9 against a five-year average of 1.9.
- Latest
- 1.9
- 12 months ago
- 2.13
- 5-year average
- 1.86
- 5-year range
- 1.3 – 2.2
Rental Pressure
Soft▼ falling
Confidence: Moderate
Rental growth is 9.3% below the five-year average. Latest reading 5.4 against a five-year average of 6.0.
- Latest
- 5.44
- 12 months ago
- 6.26
- 5-year average
- 6
- 5-year range
- 5.4 – 6.6
Affordability
Neutral— flat
Confidence: Low
The price-to-rent multiple sits 2.0% below its five-year average. Latest reading 23.3 against a five-year average of 23.8.
- Latest
- 23.31
- 12 months ago
- 23.49
- 5-year average
- 23.78
- 5-year range
- 23.3 – 24.3
Supply
Soft▼ falling
Confidence: High
Advertised stock is 11.6% above the five-year average. Latest reading 110.0 against a five-year average of 98.5.
- Latest
- 110
- 12 months ago
- 103.03
- 5-year average
- 98.54
- 5-year range
- 71.7 – 119.2
Liquidity
Strong▲ rising
Confidence: High
Transaction volumes are 23.6% above the five-year average. Latest reading 50.0 against a five-year average of 40.4.
- Latest
- 50
- 12 months ago
- 37.45
- 5-year average
- 40.44
- 5-year range
- 29.0 – 50.2
Population Growth
Firm▲ rising
Confidence: Moderate
Population growth is 8.0% above the longer-run average. Latest reading 1.1 against a five-year average of 1.0.
- Latest
- 1.08
- 12 months ago
- 0.95
- 5-year average
- 1
- 5-year range
- .9 – 1.1
Development Risk
Weak▼ falling
Confidence: High
Dwelling approvals are 18.1% above the five-year average. Latest reading 27.5 against a five-year average of 23.3.
- Latest
- 27.5
- 12 months ago
- 24.12
- 5-year average
- 23.28
- 5-year range
- 15.4 – 29.1
Investor Activity
Neutral▼ falling
Confidence: Low
Gross yields are 3.9% above the five-year average. Latest reading 4.3 against a five-year average of 4.1.
- Latest
- 4.3
- 12 months ago
- 4.34
- 5-year average
- 4.14
- 5-year range
- 3.7 – 4.5
Indicators
Latest reading against one, three and five years ago
| Indicator | Latest | 1yr | 3yr | 5yr | 5yr avg | 5yr range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median house priceMiddle sale price for houses over the trailing twelve months. | $846,453 | +4.6% | +15.8% | +27.5% | $752,345 | $663,687 – $847,026 |
| 12-month price growthTwelve-month change in median house price. | 4.6% | -11.5% | -14.4% | — | 5.1% | 4.3% – 5.9% |
| Median unit priceMiddle sale price for units and apartments over the trailing twelve months. | $437,172 | +3.9% | +11.8% | +19.3% | $400,497 | $366,601 – $437,172 |
| Median weekly rentMiddle advertised weekly rent across all dwelling types. | 698 | +5.4% | +19.0% | +33.1% | 609 | 525 – 698 |
| Rental growthTwelve-month change in median advertised weekly rent. | 5.4% | -13.1% | -6.7% | — | 6.0% | 5.4% – 6.6% |
| Gross rental yieldAnnual gross rent as a share of median dwelling value. | 4.3% | -0.9% | +7.0% | +10.0% | 4.1% | 3.7% – 4.5% |
| Price-to-rent multipleMedian house price divided by annual median rent. | 23 | -0.8% | -2.7% | -4.2% | 24 | 23 – 24 |
| Vacancy rateShare of rental stock advertised and unlet. | 1.9% | -10.8% | +19.5% | +5.0% | 1.9% | 1.3% – 2.2% |
| Sales volumeNumber of dwelling transactions settled in the month. | 50 | +33.5% | +5.8% | +66.3% | 40 | 29 – 50 |
| Total listingsDwellings advertised for sale at month end. | 110 | +6.8% | +14.1% | +24.4% | 99 | 72 – 119 |
| Days on marketMedian time from listing to sale. | 38 days | -3.4% | +16.5% | +20.1% | 35 days | 25 days – 42 days |
| Vendor discountMedian gap between first asking price and sale price. | -2.4% | +3.2% | -5.6% | -4.7% | -2.4% | -2.7% – -2.1% |
| Auction clearanceShare of scheduled auctions reported sold. | 64.1% | +3.5% | +4.1% | +12.9% | 61.3% | 55.7% – 66.5% |
| Population growthAnnual resident population change. | 1.1% | +13.7% | +2.9% | +17.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% – 1.1% |
| Building approvalsDwellings approved for construction in the month. | 28 | +14.0% | +14.8% | +51.5% | 23 | 15 – 29 |
Source: Australia Property Data derived series (anchored to current market metrics). Percentage columns show the change from that point to the latest observation.
History
Monthly observations, last five years
Source: Australia Property Data derived series (anchored to current market metrics)
Source: Australia Property Data derived series (anchored to current market metrics)
Source: Australia Property Data derived series (anchored to current market metrics)
Source: Australia Property Data derived series (anchored to current market metrics)
What could change this market?
- Transport
Suburban Rail Loop East
Under construction · 2035
Reshapes access between middle-ring employment centres and lifts development capacity around six new stations.
Tunnelling underway between Cheltenham and Box Hill; precinct structure planning continues alongside.
- Transport
Metro Tunnel precinct uplift
Operating · Now
New CBD-fringe stations are already redirecting rental demand and apartment supply.
Station catchments at Parkville, Anzac and Arden are the focus of rezoning activity.
- Planning reform
Activity centre rezoning program
Announced · 2026-2028
Higher permitted densities across dozens of centres change the medium-term apartment pipeline.
Watch approval volumes in nominated centres for early supply signals.
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